Saturday, 16 September 2017

India's Current Account Deficit hits four-year high on widening trade gap


India’s accounting Deficit (CAD), one in all the key economic metrics, is blinking red. At $14.3 bn, or 2.4 per cent of the value in half-moon of the present financial , CAD surged to a four-year high, wetting tries to keep up deficit at a period record of 0.7 per cent of the value in FY17.

Rising gold imports and rupee appreciation that drove non-oil, non-gold imports higher relative to exports, widened the merchandise deficit to $41.2 bn, in step with run batted in. the information is unsatisfactory for the govt., that is facing pressure from falling exports. the great news although is, the rising deficit doesn’t indicate we have a tendency to live outside our suggests that.

Forex reserves crossed the $400 bn-mark for the primary time early this month, strengthening capital buffers. It means, excluding gold reserves, we've decent reserves, $376 bn to be precise, to obtain a year of imports. “We expect FY18 deficit to double to around $30-32 bn (1.2-1.3 per cent of GDP). all the same, this could be adequately supported through a beginning in NRI deposits and FDI and FII inflows,” aforementioned Hindu deity Nayar, principal economic expert, ICRA Ltd.

Typically, deficit happens once imports exceed exports or different elements like income, interest and dividends on foreign transactions gyrate. The 15 per cent hike in services trade surplus, modest increase in secondary financial gain inflows and decline in primary financial gain outflows prevented CAD from a bigger deterioration.

But specialists warn, high imports might weaken rupee, sap liquidity, shrink back foreign investors, and hamper demand am fond of it did once deficit ballooned to 4.8 per cent in FY14. a combination smart|of excellent|of fine} policy (import tariffs on gold and export promotion) and good luck (falling crude prices) helped in an exceedingly turnaround with CAD subsidence at an incredible 0.7 per cent in FY17.

Net portfolio investment recorded substantial inflows of $12.5 billion in half-moon, primarily within the debt phase compared to $2.1 bn, same amount last year. however internet receipts on account of non-resident deposits collective $1.2 bn in Q1’18, not up to $1.4 bn last year.

Forex reserves go past $400bn
Foreign exchange reserves crossed $400 billion for the primary time, strengthening the capital buffers, in step with run batted in knowledge discharged on Friday. Excluding gold, forex reserves stood at $376 billion, price one year of imports. Forex reserves together with gold stood at $400.7 billion on Sep 8.

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Tuesday, 12 September 2017

As stock market heats up, retail investors slake thirst with mutual fund SIPs

Average monthly SIP inflows in FY18 to this point has been Rs 4636 large integer, up 27 p.c over the monthly average of Rs 3626 large integer last year, consistent with knowledge collated by the Association of Mutual Funds.

Inflows into equity schemes of mutual funds through systematic investment plans (SIPs) are steady on the increase, a lot of to the delight of fund managers, and also the sales groups at quality management firms.

Average monthly SIP inflows to this point in FY18 has been Rs 4,636 crore, up 27 p.c over the monthly average of Rs 3,626 large integer last year, consistent with knowledge collated by the Association of Mutual Funds.

That makes life plenty easier for fund managers, United Nations agency are ready to set up their allocations higher.

In the past, retail investors would rush to place cash in an exceedingly raging securities industry and so withdraw it because the market began to slip. That meant fund managers would typically need to play shares of risky firms close to the market high and so need to sell quality stocks in an exceedingly downtrend as a result of the remainder wouldn't have any takers.

“SIP flows are particular for U.S.A. (fund managers); it helps U.S.A. to calibrate cash higher,” aforementioned Gopal Agrawal, Chief Investment Officer-Equities, Tata investment company. He supplemental that SIP route is that the most suitable choice for investors presently once valuations look stretched.

Agrees Gautam Sinha Roy, Senior vp and Equity Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal investment company. “Visibility on inflows helps fund managers take long run calls, which interprets into performance at some purpose.”

Equity benchmarks have up roughly 20 p.c to this point this year, defying sluggish political economy knowledge, political science tensions, foreign fund outflows and big-ticket valuations. Assets managed by pure equity schemes currently stand at Rs 5.73 hundred thousand large integer, accounting for roughly 28 p.c of total investment company assets.

The securities industry isn't showing any signs of cooling off nevertheless. which seems to be drawing in retail investors by the droves, if the numbers are any indication.

Close to Rs 5,000 large integer of SIP cash flowed into equity schemes in July this year, up from around Rs 4,100 large integer in Jan.

All quality management firms along have concerning 1.52 large integer SIP accounts through that investors often invest in investment company schemes.

Last year, about 6.26 hundred thousand SIP accounts were supplemental monthly on the average, with a meanSIP size of concerning Rs 3,200 per account.

In FY18 to this point, the trade supplemental concerning 8.23 hundred thousand accounts monthly, whilst the common account size has not modified a lot of.

“Many investors United Nations agency had burnt their fingers within the last rally by directly finance in equities while not correct analysis are currently taking investment company route." Tushar Bopche, vp, Products, IIFL.

Falling returns from ancient investment avenues like mounted deposits, property and gold is one in all the most reasons for the huge inflows into mutual funds. AN equally necessary driver has been termination. sturdy inflows have triggered a virtuous cycle whereby rising stock costs ar attracting extra money.

From taking part in second fiddle to foreign funds until it slow back, mutual funds currently have remodeled into a reputable counterweight to overseas cash managers. This was evident in August once near Rs 15,000 large integer of internet merchandising by foreign funds didn't have a lot of of an impression, due to purchases by domestic mutual funds.

And yet, some fund managers hope that the trade doesn't become a victim of its own success.
“There are instances of balanced funds being sold as quasi-fixed financial gain merchandise,” aforementioned a fund manager United Nations agency didn't need to be quoted. “Given the booming market and stellar performance of most funds, there are many takers. however the trade ought to learn from the expertise of insurance (industry) before misselling the merchandise,” the fund manager aforementioned.

In 2009-10, domestic insurance corporations collected Brobdingnagian sums by merchandising Unit joined Investment Plans (ULIPs) to customers while not giving a real image of the merchandise.
ULIPs collected fat commissions direct, that successively depressed the returns for the consumers of the merchandise. Later, IRDA stepped in and adjusted the commission structure in order that the holders of the merchandise weren't shortchanged, however the harm had already been done. for several years whilst the principles were modified, insurance corporations had a tricky time merchandising ULIPs.

And there's a word of caution for investors in mutual funds moreover.
“Equity markets are inherently volatile, a stock market index can ne'er move in one direction, thus investors got to be prepared for volatility,” aforementioned Jimmy Patel, Chief officer, Quantum investment company.

Fund managers additionally cannot take regular inflows as a right. throughout the securities industry of 2007-08, retail investors invested with heavily into mutual funds. SIPs were simply starting to gain quality at that point because the market had been rising for nearly 5 years in an exceedingly row. however the instant share costs went into a tail spin within the aftermath of the world money crisis, investment company investors panic-struck. several investors didn't renew their SIPs once seeing their returns shrink significantly.

“Inflows ar sturdy immediately, however one will ne'er say however investors can react if the market underperforms for 2 or 3 years at a stretch,” says Rajeev Thakkar, CEO, Parag Parikh money consultive Services.

Traditionally, retail capitalist hysteria has marked the height of a pitched battle. That trend not appears to carry true, gazing the sustained uptrend available costs whilst retail cash has been gushing in through mutual funds.

But no one is convinced.
“Where was this retail cash once the market was low cost,” says a fund manager United Nations agency didn't need to be quoted.
“The inflows are rising because the market is rising. Valuations are already big-ticket, however since the trailing returns look nice, everyone appears to be convinced that the long run returns are going to be nearly as good. most of the people don't seem to be privy to the merchandise they're shopping for into. this can be a classic sign of AN approaching market peak. however that will not happen tomorrow or future month. you'll even see monthly SIP inflows rising to around Rs 8000 large integer per month before realization sets in this stock costs are dispiritedly inflated,” the fund manager aforementioned.

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Monday, 11 September 2017

How to invest when market is on a high

The equity market is close to its uncomparable high. Given the outstanding rise and valuable valuations, is it the correct time to speculate in stocks?

Trading simply recede from its uncomparable high, of late the equity market is on a joyride. tho' a recent short and shallow correction has force down the indices, most equity analysts ar of the read that the market is commercialism at valuable valuations. The market is so valuable, a minimum of at the index level furthermore as in specific sectors like banking and commodity, for example. At this forward price-to-earnings multiples, not solely the market is commercialism well higher than its historical average however presently Indian exchange is additionally one amongst the foremost valuable markets within the world.

The current exuberance and irrational costs are expected to stay on higher aspect of the curve and also the market is anticipated to stay within the gift valuable commercialism zone until the top of year, unless some unforeseen international factors spoil the party. Last year, the market rose by seventeen per cent; this year thus far it's appreciated by regarding nineteen per cent. Given the outstanding rise, the question that almost all investors should be asking is: ought to they still park their excess cash in stocks? Or is it informed watch for a meaty correction?


While equity investment may be a personal call, totally {different|completely different} folks follow different investment strategy. There are 2 types of investors: short-to-medium term and long run. The time horizon for short/medium term investors – don’t mistake them for traders – may be anyplace between 3 to 6 months. Most of the long-run investors believe being invested with for a handful of years a minimum of. however equity market rewards long run investors the foremost. What’s additional, long run investment is exempted from capital gains tax. So, long-run investment works higher.

Now to the question: is it the correct time to invest? it's going to not be, if you're a short capitalist. However, for long run investors it conjointly might not be the best time, given the valuations. however long run investments aren't determined by valuations alone however time horizon furthermore. Since temporal order the market isn't straightforward, watching for realistic value correction could or might not persuade be the correct strategy. The market could or might not correct well – a minimum of one,000 points on the groovy – in predictable future; equity analysts also are of the read that the market might not bear deep correction.

However, if the market will correct, no one is aware of however deep the correction would be. typically market conjointly stays overvalued for extended period; it's conjointly potential that {it could it's going to|it should} not correct a lot of however may remain in a very slim band of a handful of hundred points in absence of support from company earnings, slow pace of economic reforms or uncertainty in international macro-economic factors. It's conjointly quite possible that the market could ignore these negatives and refuse to travel down due to sturdy liquidity.


One of the explanations for the surge in indices over the past six months is powerful liquidity, each international and domestic. the opposite reasons ar low interest rates and cash shifting from land to equity market once demonetization. Interest rates are possible to stay benign. Low interest rates regime has shifted the balance in favour of equities. it's true that the basics of Indian economy have improved since the past decade. Stable GDP growth, improved macro-economic conditions, low inflation, shrinking accounting deficit and rising interchange reserves augur well for the economy furthermore because the equity market.

However, it doesn't mean that investors ought to rush into shopping for shares at current levels. Ideally, it might be prudent to attend for five to ten per cent correction. If that doesn't happen short terms falls ought to be utilized as a shopping for chance. Equities have the tendency to beat alternative quality categories within the long haul. thence it's necessary to possess a protracted investment horizon. Stock choice is equally vital – ignore the market noise and comb out firms that have weak fundamentals; target firms that have historical log of sturdy growth. Quality of earnings and market leadership are equally vital in selecting stocks.

While valuations play a key role in crucial returns, time horizon conjointly plays AN equally necessary half. for example, it's true that investments created at lower levels offer higher returns as compared to investments at higher costs if the investments ar control for regarding 5 years. However, if the time horizon is 10 to 15 years, the impact of valuations on returns is minimal . will it mean that one ought to watch for the correct valuations and avoid investment at alternative times? It depends plenty on your investment objective and finish goal.


 However, it's necessary to say here that valuation parameters disagree from person to person and sector to sector. Market doesn't offer same valuation to any or all sectors and equities at intervals every sector. for example, the uncertainty in growth since the monetary crisis of 2007-08 has brought down the valuations of technology firms. On the opposite hand, a number of the FMCG firms that have visible growth prospects on the rear of sturdy domestic consumption ar commercialism at valuable valuations. Even at intervals the banking house, a number of the highest playacting personal sector banks fancy premium valuation as compared to most of the general public sector banks that are beleaguered by foreign terrorist organization issues.

So what ought to individual capitalists do? If you're a long-run investor, opt for the correct stocks wherever there's clarity on earnings and growth furthermore as minimal impact of disruption and competitive pressures. However, if you don’t perceive the market well, it's higher to require the fund route through systematic investment set up (SIP). Participation from retail investors in equity mutual funds has been increasing. for example, so far, this year, mutual funds have invested with regarding 52,000 large integer in equities. in step with reports, retail investors place in regarding 5,000 large integer into mutual funds through SIPs.

As SIPs instill discipline in saving and investment, they conjointly facilitate avoid uncertainty and endless discussion on the ‘right time’ to speculate in equity market.

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Friday, 8 September 2017

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Wednesday, 6 September 2017

Gold, silver rise on global cues


Gold prices were higher by Rs 103 to Rs 30,208 per ten grams in futures trade nowadays as speculators widened their positions on positive cues from international markets.

At the Multi commodities exchange, gold for delivery in Oct was mercantilism higher by Rs 103, or 0.34 per cent, at Rs 30,208 per ten grams, in a very business turnover of 426 tons.

The metal for delivery in far-month Dec too rose by Rs ninety four, or 0.31 per cent, at Rs 30,386 per ten grams, in a very turnover of 3 tons.

Analysts aforesaid a firming trend in international market on prevailing government tensions once the D.P.R.K. on Sunday claimed that it had with success tested a fusion bomb, fuelled protection demand, influenced the gold costs in futures trade.

Globally, gold rose 0.22 per cent higher at USD 1,336.70 an ounce in Singapore nowadays.
Silver
Silver costs went up by Rs 204 to Rs 42,114 per kilogram in futures mercantilism nowadays as speculators widened positions amid firm trend in precious metals overseas.

At the Multi commodities exchange, silver for delivery in March next year listed higher by Rs 204, or 0.49 per cent, at Rs 42,114 per kilogram in a very business turnover of one heap.

Likewise, the alloy for delivery in Dec was mercantilism higher by Rs 59, or 0.14 per cent, to Rs 41,480 per kilogram in 555 tons.

Market analysts aforesaid speculative positions engineered up by participants, chase a much better trend in international markets for precious metals, supported the top in silver costs at futures trade here.

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Saturday, 2 September 2017

Agri-commodities manage to keep head high last week

Among agri-commodities, solely cardamom, mentha, chana and cotton listed on positive note whereas all different commodities are heading for weekly losses.

Cardamom futures is heading for its sixth weekly rise in last seven weeks on anticipation of fine demand in returning months in addition to unlikely surge in arrivals as a result of erratic weather whereas chana futures sees fifth consecutive weekly rise on expectation of fine pageant demand and government's import restriction on pulses.

Moreover, erratic distribution of monsoon rains in key pulses growing states conjointly support higher costs. Legume advanced and soybean costs see highest one week fall in additional than one year owing to higher domestic stocks and expectation of fine production in returning season.

The most active Gregorian calendar month delivery contract of legume advanced on National Commodities and by-product Exchange (NCDEX), saw steep fall on reports of improved weather in legume manufacturing districts of Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Moreover, market participants ar upset concerning the export prospects for the gum in returning months as crude production possible to be affected owing to cyclone medico. owing to immense devastation by cyclone, the processing capability within the United States of America possesses severely affected leading to higher crude stocks.

During the present week, Gregorian calendar month legume seed on NCDEX plunge Rs. 396 or 9.4%, to trade at Rs. 3,838 per quintal, lowest in time period nowadays whereas gum fall Rs. 725 or 8.2% to trade close to Rs. 8,110 per quintal.

In the domestic market, reports sensible|of excellent|of fine} weather within the legume manufacturing districts in Rajasthan and Gujarat might lead to good production despite lower areas this season. As on 17th  Gregorian calendar month, 2017, legume seed space in Rajasthan is 28. 26 hundred thousand hectares, virtually almost like last year space of 28.4 hundred thousand hectares. whereas in Gujarat, the legume land area forecasted down by 11.7% as on 28th Gregorian calendar month to 1.66 lakh hectares hectares as compared to previous week estimates.

According to market sources, land area in Haryana is lower as farmers have shifted to cotton owing to higher remuneration. The downward revision in Gujarat is owing to reports massive |of huge|of enormous} scale injury to standing legume crop owing to large excess rains within the major legume sowing districts of Gujarat.

The most active doybean futures for Gregorian calendar month delivery on NCDEX is heading for its largest weekly loss in additional than sixteen months chase weak physical demand on rising input price place pressure on margins of soybean crushers.

On NCDEX, soybean futures fell  more than Rs. 195 or 6.0% during the week to trade at Rs. 3,082 per quintal. Despite lower space beneath soybean this year - owing to a fall in land area in Madhya Pradesh, the costs are in pressure on. smart rains in soybean planting districts of Western Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and geographical region throughout the week ending 13th August has accumulated the prospects of fine production conjointly place pressure on costs.

The area coverage beneath soybean, as on twenty fifth August, is rumored down 7.3 % at 104.9 hundred thousand hectares compared to 113 hundred thousand hectares at identical amount last year, as per government information. As per SOPA, arrivals of soybean were at 74 lakh tonnes
(lt) in Oct-Jul, up from 54.5 lt a year agone, whereas stocks with farmers are at 30.9 lt, up from 796,000 Volunteer State a year agone.

During the present week, edible oil costs within the futures recovered throughout the last 2 days owing to smart demand within the physical market in addition to reports of increase in tariff worth for the crude soy oil and vegetable oil for the primary half Gregorian calendar month by government. However, the soy oil futures ar still commerce lower compared to last week closings of Rs. 663.9 per ten kilogram owing to higher imports of edible oil throughout the month of July. consistent with the business information unleash, edible fat imports rose thirty fourth throughout July to 15.25 hundred thousand tonnes owing to higher shipments of cheaper refine vegetable oil and soy oil.

Among spices, NCDEX Jeera for Sep delivery contract heading for initial weekly loss once time period of positive closing principally on profit bookings by the market participants because the arrivals have accumulated throughout August compared to July. The close to month contract (Sep 17 delivery) is listed at premium than the 2 so much month contracts that indicates improvement in close to term physical demand from the market participants. The sellers (hedgers) are exiting from the contracts at smart profits whereas patrons got the particular delivery from exchange. As per Agmarknet, jeera arrival throughout August up 81 to 7,078 tonnes as compared to 3,912 tonnes throughout July.
Turmeric futures for Gregorian calendar month delivery on NCDEX closed higher on commerce during a slender vary on reports of fine rains in Turmeric growing areas throughout week ending thirtieth August.

The production estimate of turmeric for 2016/17 is pegged at 11.32 hundred thousand tonnes by government in third advance estimate higher from 9.43 hundred thousand tonnes in 2015/16. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 16th August, down a hundred and 25th to 44,411 hectares as compared to last year land area of 44,919 hectares.
MCX Cotton for Gregorian calendar month delivery is heading for second consecutive weekly gains despite reports of upper production amid improved land area however erratic monsoon in addition to cuss attacks is supporting the costs on top of Rs. 18,600 per bale within the country.

"According to Cotton Corporation of Asian country (CCI), total production for the season is probably going to the touch 370 hundred thousand bales as against 345 hundred thousand bales for the previous season as cotton land area is higher this year. As per latest information from Agricultural Ministry, the world beneath cotton was at 119.7 hundred thousand square measure, up 16.7% on year.

"International cotton costs is anticipated to hit a contemporary three-week high because the market remained cautious of the impact of Tropical Storm medico, within the United States of America that caused harmful flooding in high cotton manufacturing state Texas.

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